Woof woof! Here's the coffee market report for August 4th to 10th!
Last week was a week of sudden energy, like a dog that has gotten lost on a walk and now finds its owner! The week from August 4th to 10th started off with a bit of a shaky start, but gradually it felt like it was running up the ladder with its tail wagging wildly.
Especially on the weekend of August 9th (Friday), the September Arabica coffee contract jumped 11.55 points (3.88%) , hitting a three-week high, just like discovering a favorite treat! It was just like watching a dog who had been feeling down the previous week suddenly regain his energy and start hopping around.
The biggest reason is that coffee from Brazil is running out ! Brazil's coffee exports in July were down 20.4% from the previous year, to just 161,000 tons . This is like when your regular dog food stocks suddenly run low.
In addition, another major factor was that iced Arabica coffee stocks fell to the lowest level in 14.5 months (738,095 bags). This meant that the snacks in the warehouse were disappearing one after another, and everyone was a little worried.
Even more interesting, the Brazilian real rose to its highest level in a month, which also had an impact. It was as if the dogs in Brazil were getting a little bolder and saying, "We're going to sell our coffee at a high price!"
On August 10th, USD/JPY was at 147.75 yen , up just 0.06% from the previous day, and moved calmly, like a dog taking a leisurely stroll.
It fluctuated between 147.885 yen (high on August 4th) and 146.745 yen (low on August 5th) during the week, and has fallen 0.331% over the past week, but it hasn't bounced around as much as coffee.
Here are some things to keep an eye out for this week:
The most important thing is the coffee stock situation . Ice stock is decreasing rapidly, so if it gets any lower, the price may go up even more. It's like everyone is nervous because their snack can is about to run out.
Also keep an eye on Brazil's export data . The August figures could drastically change the mood of the market. This is as important as checking the weather forecast to plan your walk.
Seasonal factors also play a role. July and August have historically been good months for coffee, so this trend may continue.
If inventory continues to decrease and supplies from Brazil remain low, the price could go above $320 and even higher ! It's like when a dog starts running and can't stop.
But on the other hand, it seems like everyone is a little too excited, so they might take a break somewhere, like a dog taking a break after a long run in the park.
Last week was a week where the market was driven by the very real issue of supply shortages ! Wow! The market has now shifted from worries about tariffs to the very real issue of a real coffee shortage.
This week too, I'll be keeping a close eye on market movements, wagging my tail, and hoping that we can all continue to enjoy delicious coffee!
*Invest at your own risk, be careful and wag your tail!
Last week was a week of sudden energy, like a dog that has gotten lost on a walk and now finds its owner! The week from August 4th to 10th started off with a bit of a shaky start, but gradually it felt like it was running up the ladder with its tail wagging wildly.
Especially on the weekend of August 9th (Friday), the September Arabica coffee contract jumped 11.55 points (3.88%) , hitting a three-week high, just like discovering a favorite treat! It was just like watching a dog who had been feeling down the previous week suddenly regain his energy and start hopping around.
Why did your dog suddenly become so energetic? Even your dog can tell
The biggest reason is that coffee from Brazil is running out ! Brazil's coffee exports in July were down 20.4% from the previous year, to just 161,000 tons . This is like when your regular dog food stocks suddenly run low.
In addition, another major factor was that iced Arabica coffee stocks fell to the lowest level in 14.5 months (738,095 bags). This meant that the snacks in the warehouse were disappearing one after another, and everyone was a little worried.
Even more interesting, the Brazilian real rose to its highest level in a month, which also had an impact. It was as if the dogs in Brazil were getting a little bolder and saying, "We're going to sell our coffee at a high price!"
The yen and dollar were in a leisurely stroll.
On August 10th, USD/JPY was at 147.75 yen , up just 0.06% from the previous day, and moved calmly, like a dog taking a leisurely stroll.
It fluctuated between 147.885 yen (high on August 4th) and 146.745 yen (low on August 5th) during the week, and has fallen 0.331% over the past week, but it hasn't bounced around as much as coffee.
This week's walking course (points to note)
Here are some things to keep an eye out for this week:
The most important thing is the coffee stock situation . Ice stock is decreasing rapidly, so if it gets any lower, the price may go up even more. It's like everyone is nervous because their snack can is about to run out.
Also keep an eye on Brazil's export data . The August figures could drastically change the mood of the market. This is as important as checking the weather forecast to plan your walk.
Seasonal factors also play a role. July and August have historically been good months for coffee, so this trend may continue.
This week's predictions (including my dog's intuition)
If inventory continues to decrease and supplies from Brazil remain low, the price could go above $320 and even higher ! It's like when a dog starts running and can't stop.
But on the other hand, it seems like everyone is a little too excited, so they might take a break somewhere, like a dog taking a break after a long run in the park.
Last week was a week where the market was driven by the very real issue of supply shortages ! Wow! The market has now shifted from worries about tariffs to the very real issue of a real coffee shortage.
This week too, I'll be keeping a close eye on market movements, wagging my tail, and hoping that we can all continue to enjoy delicious coffee!
*Invest at your own risk, be careful and wag your tail!
