Woof woof! Here's the coffee market report from August 18th to 24th!

Last week's market was an exciting week, just like the moment when a dog finds its favorite ball while on a walk! Between August 18th and 24th, the price seemed to be climbing higher and higher, just like a dog that has found a jumping ramp.

Especially on August 22nd, it jumped up to $388.65/lb, up 3.57% from the previous day , just like when you're running around lured by the smell of a delicious snack! It was like climbing to the highest point in the park!

Then on Friday, the December Arabica coffee contract jumped enthusiastically by 13.30 points (3.64%) , hitting its highest price in 3.5 months. The September Robusta contract also jumped 108 points (2.27%) , hitting its highest price in 3 months! I felt like I was running around wagging my tail!

Why did I become so happy? Even my dog can understand

The main reason is that there was no rain at all in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais during the week of August 16th ! This caused some concern, just like when the water fountain on your usual walking route runs out. Minas Gerais is the largest producer of Arabica coffee in Brazil, so the lack of rain can make dogs nervous.

In addition, there have been reports of mild frost damage . I think the coffee plants are feeling a bit surprised, just like when you go for a morning walk and the ground freezes and your paws get cold. Dog experts are worried that this could affect the 2026 harvest.

What's even more surprising is that American buyers are avoiding the new deal with Brazil ! The 50% tariff is like, "I can't buy those overpriced snacks!" and this is tightening American supplies.

But there was good news too.

It was reported that Brazil's 2025/26 harvest was 99% complete as of August 20th ! Robusta is 100% complete, and Arabica is 98% complete, meaning the harvest is almost over. This was a bit of a relief, like coming home safely from a long walk.

The yen and dollar had some tense days.

On August 22nd, the USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuated dramatically from a high of 148.75 yen to a low of 146.625 yen , dropping 1.181% in just one day! It was like the other dog on a seesaw suddenly dropping, and it was a shocking drop.

But overall, he was hovering around 147 yen and didn't jump around much like Coffee. He was as calm as ever, like a dog on a leisurely stroll.

This week's walking course (points to note)

There's a lot to pay special attention to this week:

The weather in Brazil is the most important thing. Whether it rains or not can make all the difference in your mood. It's just as important as looking up at the sky and wondering if it's going to rain before you go for a walk.

Be sure to keep an eye on the tariff issue . It will be interesting to see how long American buyers continue to avoid making deals with Brazil.

Volcafe forecasts an Arabica shortage of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26 , the fifth consecutive year of shortages and a larger one than the 5.5 million bags reported last year.

This week's predictions (including my dog's intuition)

If the weather and supply shortages continue, the price could go even higher, aiming for $400 ! It's like a dog that starts running, gets excited, and runs farther and farther. It's up 28.97% in the past month and 55.08% for the year , so it might be unstoppable.

But if it rains and we don't have to worry about dry weather, or if the tariff issue is resolved, things might calm down a bit. This might be like a dog taking a short break in the shade after running hard in the park.

Last week was a truly special one, with both bad weather and political issues simultaneously boosting the market! I'll be keeping a close eye on market movements this week as well, and hope that we can all continue to enjoy delicious coffee!

*Invest at your own risk, be careful and wag your tail!