Last week's coffee market chart (2025-08-25 to 2025-08-31)

Last week's market was an exciting week, just like the moment when a dog finds its favorite ball while on a walk! Between August 25th and 31st, the price seemed to be climbing higher and higher, just like a dog that has found a jumping ramp.
Especially over the weekend, coffee futures prices surged 29.04% over the past month, bringing the year-to-date increase to a massive 56.95%! It was like reaching the top of a park! As of September 4th, it had reached $385.44/lb, up 0.05% from the previous day.
Brazil's 2025/26 harvest is almost complete, but prices are still rising! It was announced that the harvest was 99% complete (100% Robusta, 98% Arabica) as of the end of August, but people are still worried. It's like a dog who's collected all the treats and still says it's not enough!
Volcafe's shocking prediction has sent shockwaves through the market! They're predicting an Arabica coffee shortage of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26. This is a much larger figure than the 5.5 million bags of the previous year, and marks the fifth consecutive year of shortages. It feels like there's been a constant shortage of snacks, which is a bit worrying.
Meanwhile, the USDA is predicting record production, with global production forecasts of 178.68 million bags (+2.5%) for 2025/26, with Robusta forecasts increasing by 7.9% and Arabica forecasts decreasing by 1.7%. This Shin contradicts Volcafe's forecasts of a shortage, which is causing confusion.
The 50% US tariff that went into effect on August 6th continues to have a major impact on the market this week! American buyers are avoiding new contracts with Brazil as if they're saying, "I can't afford that snack that's just too expensive."
This has tightened supplies in the US, contributing to higher prices. It's a bit of an unnerving situation, like when you meet a new friend and you don't know if you'll get along.
Ice-Cold Arabica coffee stocks have fallen to 686,863 bags, the lowest level in 1.25 years! That means your favorite snack is almost gone!
ICE Robusta stocks are also at a one-month low of 6,552 lots. It's like everyone was sharing a snack and it was gone in a flash!
According to the latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports in July fell 1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags. Cumulative exports from October to July also fell 0.3% to 115.615 million bags, indicating that supply remains tight.
The August average for USD/JPY was 147.48 yen, and it showed relatively stable movements this week. It didn't bounce around like coffee, but rather felt like a dog taking a leisurely walk.
The yen is expected to appreciate overall in 2025, with the dollar falling by 6.57% over the year, making the yen stronger! The highest price was 158.35 yen (January), the lowest price was 140.72 yen (April), and the average was 148.19 yen.
There may be some relief for Japanese coffee lovers, as the rise in coffee prices has been partially offset by the strong yen.
The September flowering period is crucial! The 2026/27 crop is due to start flowering in a few weeks, and the results will likely be a major driver of the market in early autumn. It's a bit like anticipating the blossoms in spring.
We also need to keep an eye on the tariff issue. Everyone is paying close attention to how the relationship between the US and Brazil will develop.
The situation in Vietnam is also a concern. Drought caused a 20% drop in production in 2023/24, but exports increased by 6.9% in January-July 2025, so there may be signs of recovery.
As long as supply shortages continue, the price could reach the $400 mark! It's like when a dog starts running, has fun, and runs farther and farther.
However, if the USDA's record production forecast comes true, things may calm down a bit. The key to future developments will likely be whether Volcafe's prediction of a shortage or the USDA's prediction of a bumper crop is correct.
Market sentiment could change dramatically depending on how Brazil's 2026/27 flowering season pans out. It's like a decision to take a break in the shade after a long run in the park.
Last week was an interesting one, with record prices and conflicting supply forecasts causing chaos in the markets! With both bumper and shortage forecasts coming out at the same time, it felt like a perfect day for a walk, not knowing if it would be hot or cold.
The 29.04% increase over the past month and the 56.95% increase over the year are already surprising. However, the question of whether this is a speculative move or a genuine supply shortage will likely be a focus of attention in the future.
The volume of business has increased, and it's clear that everyone at Shin is thinking about the future of coffee. It feels like everyone is concentrating, like they're having an important family meeting.
This week too, I'll be keeping a close eye on market movements, wagging my tail, and hoping that we can all continue to enjoy delicious coffee!
*Invest at your own risk, be careful and wag your tail!
Especially over the weekend, coffee futures prices surged 29.04% over the past month, bringing the year-to-date increase to a massive 56.95%! It was like reaching the top of a park! As of September 4th, it had reached $385.44/lb, up 0.05% from the previous day.
Why did I become so happy? Even my dog can understand
Brazil's 2025/26 harvest is almost complete, but prices are still rising! It was announced that the harvest was 99% complete (100% Robusta, 98% Arabica) as of the end of August, but people are still worried. It's like a dog who's collected all the treats and still says it's not enough!
Volcafe's shocking prediction has sent shockwaves through the market! They're predicting an Arabica coffee shortage of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26. This is a much larger figure than the 5.5 million bags of the previous year, and marks the fifth consecutive year of shortages. It feels like there's been a constant shortage of snacks, which is a bit worrying.
Meanwhile, the USDA is predicting record production, with global production forecasts of 178.68 million bags (+2.5%) for 2025/26, with Robusta forecasts increasing by 7.9% and Arabica forecasts decreasing by 1.7%. This Shin contradicts Volcafe's forecasts of a shortage, which is causing confusion.
The 50% tariff will have a huge impact!
The 50% US tariff that went into effect on August 6th continues to have a major impact on the market this week! American buyers are avoiding new contracts with Brazil as if they're saying, "I can't afford that snack that's just too expensive."
This has tightened supplies in the US, contributing to higher prices. It's a bit of an unnerving situation, like when you meet a new friend and you don't know if you'll get along.
We're low on stock, what a problem!
Ice-Cold Arabica coffee stocks have fallen to 686,863 bags, the lowest level in 1.25 years! That means your favorite snack is almost gone!
ICE Robusta stocks are also at a one-month low of 6,552 lots. It's like everyone was sharing a snack and it was gone in a flash!
According to the latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports in July fell 1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags. Cumulative exports from October to July also fell 0.3% to 115.615 million bags, indicating that supply remains tight.
The yen and dollar were relatively calm.
The August average for USD/JPY was 147.48 yen, and it showed relatively stable movements this week. It didn't bounce around like coffee, but rather felt like a dog taking a leisurely walk.
The yen is expected to appreciate overall in 2025, with the dollar falling by 6.57% over the year, making the yen stronger! The highest price was 158.35 yen (January), the lowest price was 140.72 yen (April), and the average was 148.19 yen.
There may be some relief for Japanese coffee lovers, as the rise in coffee prices has been partially offset by the strong yen.
This week's walking course (points to note)
The September flowering period is crucial! The 2026/27 crop is due to start flowering in a few weeks, and the results will likely be a major driver of the market in early autumn. It's a bit like anticipating the blossoms in spring.
We also need to keep an eye on the tariff issue. Everyone is paying close attention to how the relationship between the US and Brazil will develop.
The situation in Vietnam is also a concern. Drought caused a 20% drop in production in 2023/24, but exports increased by 6.9% in January-July 2025, so there may be signs of recovery.
This week's predictions (including my dog's intuition)
As long as supply shortages continue, the price could reach the $400 mark! It's like when a dog starts running, has fun, and runs farther and farther.
However, if the USDA's record production forecast comes true, things may calm down a bit. The key to future developments will likely be whether Volcafe's prediction of a shortage or the USDA's prediction of a bumper crop is correct.
Market sentiment could change dramatically depending on how Brazil's 2026/27 flowering season pans out. It's like a decision to take a break in the shade after a long run in the park.
lastly
Last week was an interesting one, with record prices and conflicting supply forecasts causing chaos in the markets! With both bumper and shortage forecasts coming out at the same time, it felt like a perfect day for a walk, not knowing if it would be hot or cold.
The 29.04% increase over the past month and the 56.95% increase over the year are already surprising. However, the question of whether this is a speculative move or a genuine supply shortage will likely be a focus of attention in the future.
The volume of business has increased, and it's clear that everyone at Shin is thinking about the future of coffee. It feels like everyone is concentrating, like they're having an important family meeting.
This week too, I'll be keeping a close eye on market movements, wagging my tail, and hoping that we can all continue to enjoy delicious coffee!
*Invest at your own risk, be careful and wag your tail!


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