Woof woof! Last week was a week of "big shocks"!

Hello, I'm a dog analyst!

The week of November 17th to 23rd, 2025 was a week of huge market movements, like a sudden thunderclap at the dog park!
Coffee prices were full of energy in the first half of the week, but suddenly became depressed in the second half.

The reason? President Trump has lifted the 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee !
This was like a big toss of the ball to the market, and everyone started running at once.

Weekly price trend ~ Price movement was like chasing

A look at last week's ICE Arabica Coffee futures (December/March contracts):

The start of the week, Monday, November 17th , was a strong start, continuing the momentum from the previous week.
The ICO (International Coffee Organization) Brazilian Natural Index price was trading at 373.80 cents/pound .

On Tuesday, November 18th , it rose further to around 383.42 cents !
He was full of energy, like a puppy chasing a ball.

The bullish trend continued on Wednesday, November 19th , with One trading at its highest price of the week.
At this point, prices were supported by a lack of rainfall in Brazil and a decline in ICE-certified stocks.

However, on the night of Thursday, November 20th , some big news came in!
President Trump has signed an executive order to eliminate the 40% tariff on Brazilian agricultural products.

And then the fateful day came : Friday, November 21st .
Following this news, Arabica futures fell sharply by more than 6% at one point!
Prices fell to a seven-week low of around 360 cents/lb .
The ICE March contract closed at -7.20 cents (-1.91%) .

At the end of the weekend, the Brazilian real fell to its lowest level against the dollar in five weeks.
One that has encouraged exports from Brazil, spurring a drop in prices.

On a weekly basis, ICE Arabica futures fell by about 5-7% .
Although it is still maintaining a high level of around +25% compared to the same period last year,
This was a big adjustment for the week.

Why did it drop so much? Even a dog can tell the reason

1. President Trump's elimination of tariffs on Brazil <br />This is the biggest factor!
The executive order signed by President Trump on the night of November 20th (US time)
In July of this year , the 40% additional tariff on Brazilian coffee was completely abolished .
The tariffs were initially imposed in retaliation for the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

The tariff elimination will be retroactive to November 13th .
Any duties collected after that date will be refunded.
The United States is the world's largest coffee consumer, importing about one-third of its coffee from Brazil.
This decision has raised expectations for an increase in supply.

2. Fall of the Brazilian Real <br />After the announcement of the tariff abolition, the Brazilian Real fell to its lowest level against the dollar in five weeks .
A weaker currency makes exports more profitable for Brazilian producers.
This led to increased selling pressure.

3. Rainfall forecast for Brazil
Climatempo (Brazilian weather service)
Wang reported that heavy rains are forecast for coffee-producing regions over the next week .
Adequate rainfall is good for coffee plant growth, so this is a bearish factor for prices.

4. ICE-certified stocks remain at low levels <br />Meanwhile, ICE-certified Arabica stocks remain at just under 400,000 bags, the lowest level in 1 year and 9 months .
This will support prices in the medium to long term,
In the short term, the impact of tariff elimination was greater.

Good news and bad news - tail wagging and tail down

[Good news that will make you wag your tail]

- Falling coffee prices are good news for US consumers!
The National Coffee Association (NCA) welcomed the move, saying, "Two-thirds of Americans drink coffee every day, and the cost per cup will go down."
- Brazilian exporters' association Cecafé also hailed the victory as a "historic one."

Bad news that puts the tail down

- Volcafé predicts a shortfall of 8.5 million bags in the global supply of Arabica in 2025/26, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortage.
- Drought remains a concern in some parts of Brazil.
- Volatility is likely to continue as low inventories and supply concerns persist.

The yen and dollar were in a "slow rise" mode.

Now, let's take a look at USD/JPY in the foreign exchange market!

Last week, the dollar /yen exchange rate generally saw a weaker yen and a stronger dollar .

- November 17th (Monday) : Starts at 155.23 yen
- November 18th (Tuesday) : 155.52 yen (weekly low, also recorded at 155.025 yen according to Wise)
- November 19th (Wednesday) : The yen surged to 157.05 yen.
- Thursday, November 20th : The weekly high of 157.43 yen was recorded! (Also the monthly high for November)
- November 21 (Friday) : Trading closed at 156.39 yen

The weekly range is approximately 155.02 to 157.74 yen .
The dollar strengthened towards the end of the week.

Considering the cost of purchasing coffee in Japanese yen,
The "fall in dollar-denominated coffee prices" and the "weaker yen" have offset each other.
Importers need to keep a close eye on both developments!

This week's walking course (points to note)

1. Weather in Brazil :
The amount of rainfall in Minas Gerais is important.
Adequate rain will push prices down, while a shortage will push them up.

2. Trends in ICE certified inventory :
The current level is low at around 400,000 bags, but according to Reuters, around 150,000 bags from Brazil are currently being shipped to European warehouses.
If inventory replenishment progresses, it will be negative for prices.

3. Vietnam harvest situation :
Vietnam's Robusta coffee production is expected to reach 31 million bags in 2025/26 (up about 6% from the previous year).
Depending on the weather, there may be further upside.

4. Additional US policy trends :
The Trump administration may introduce further trade policies.
The coffee industry will need to continue to be vigilant about policy risks.

5. USD/JPY Trends :
The focus will be on whether it can maintain the 157 yen range or whether it will move back towards 155 yen.
Japanese importers should pay attention to the timing of currency hedging.

This week's predictions (using your dog's intuition!)

[Bullish scenario]
Once the impact of tariff removal has been fully factored in, the underlying factors of low inventory and supply shortages may come back into focus.
If the rainfall in Brazil is not as expected, we could see a rebound to 380-400 cents .

[Bearish scenario]
If exports from Brazil resume in earnest and ICE stocks recover,
With further adjustments, it is possible that the price will test the 340-350 cent range .
Some analysts predict it could fall to 295 cents by the end of the year (a drop of about 30%) .

[Dog's perspective]
The impact of tariff elimination is likely to continue in the short term,
The structural problem of supply shortages has not been resolved,
I think it's likely to fluctuate in the range of 370 to 410 cents in the medium term.

As for USD/JPY, I predict a range of 155 to 158 yen .
It seems that movements that take into account the interest rate differential between Japan and the US will continue.


*Invest at your own risk, be careful and wag your tail!

[Data source]
- Trading Economics (price data)
- Barchart/Nasdaq (Futures Market Analysis)
- Daily Coffee News / Reuters / Bloomberg (Tariff elimination news)
- ICO - International Coffee Organization (index price)
- ValutaFX/Wise (exchange rate data)
- Somar Meteorologia / Climatempo (Brazilian meteorological data)
- VICOFA/USDA FAS (Vietnam and Brazil production data)